Abstracts

Presented by Frances E. Buderman - Email: fbuderman@gmail.com

The Prairie Pothole Region of North America is the primary breeding ground for many North American waterfowl species. Contemporary agricultural practices have resulted in the consolidation of wetlands into larger, deeper, less productive ponds, and conservation tillage has resulted in early spring crop fields that visually mimic the native short-grass prairie that species have adapted to use for nesting, but result in high nest destruction due to mechanical planting. In addition, species may be differentially affected by land cover and climate changes due to variation in life history characteristics. We used a hierarchical Bayesian model to separate the effects of land cover and climate predictors on both habitat selection and demographic processes for nine waterfowl species that use the PPR: American wigeon, blue-winged teal, gadwall, mallard, northern pintail, northern shoveler, canvasback, redhead, and ruddy duck. We then used a post-hoc analysis to determine which life history characteristics are the primary contributors to species-specific variation in the effect of land cover and climate changes on the distribution and demographic performance of waterfowl species across the PPR. We found that nesting chronology, nesting duration, and clutch size were the best predictors of a response to cropland at the demographic level. Early nesters, long nesting durations, and small clutch sizes corresponded to larger negative demographic responses to cropland. In terms of habitat selection, the distinction between diving ducks and dabbling ducks explained the majority of the relationship between habitat selection and pond counts, with diving ducks having higher effect sizes. Results from this work will be imperative in determining species-specific conservation management and predicting potential indirect results of management decisions on other species.